Comprehensive On-Site Hydrogen Production OPEX and CAPEX Analysis （100 Nm³/hour）
- 逸风 黄
- Aug 6
- 7 min read
Updated: Aug 18
Note: The following data is based on preliminary estimates from Hovogen's equipment. Specific figures may vary depending on project requirements and actual conditions.
1. System Specifications and Operational Parameters
Electrolyzer System Design
· Technology: Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Electrolyzer
· Capacity: 100 Nm³/hour (nominal), derated to 90 Nm³/hour for lifespan optimization
· Daily Output: 2,000 Nm³ (20 operational hours/day)
· System Efficiency: 55 kWh/kg H₂ (4.94 kWh/Nm³)
· Stack Design Lifespan: 30,000 hours (extendable to 35,000 hours at 80% load)
· Balance of Plant (BOP) Lifespan: 15 years (no replacement required within 10-year horizon)
Key Operational Assumptions
Parameter | Value | Rationale |
Annual Operating Days | 350 days | 15 days/year allocated for maintenance, system checks, and unforeseen downtime |
Daily Operational Hours | 20 hours | Avoids peak electricity tariffs; aligns with solar generation profile |
Solar Electricity Cost | 0 RMB/kWh | Fully integrated on-site PV system; no grid dependency |
Bottled Hydrogen Cost | 9.90 RMB/Nm³ | Based on 40 RMB/bottle (4.54 Nm³/bottle) + 11% waste adjustment |
2. Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Breakdown
Initial System Investment (Year 0): 6,000,000 RMB
Component | Cost (RMB) | Share | Technical Details |
PEM Electrolyzer Stack | 3,500,000 | 58.3% | Includes membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs), bipolar plates, and assembly labor |
Balance of Plant (BOP) | 1,800,000 | 30.0% | Covers purification units, cooling systems, transformers, and control software |
Installation & Commissioning | 700,000 | 11.7% | Civil works, electrical integration, safety certification, and operator training |
Stack Replacement Schedule
· First Replacement (Year 4.3): 3,500,000 RMB (after 30,000 operational hours)
· Second Replacement (Year 8.6): 3,500,000 RMB (after 60,000 hours)
· Partial Replacement (Year 8.6): 1,166,667 RMBCalculation:Cost=(10,000 hr/30,000 hr)×3,500,000=1,166,667 RMB
(Required for final 10,000 hours of operation)
Total CAPEX (10 Years)
Component | Cost (RMB) | Timing |
Initial System | 6,000,000 | Year 0 |
Stack Replacements | 8,166,667 | Years 4.3 & 8.6 |
Total | 14,166,667 |
|
3. Operating Expenditure (OPEX) Analysis
Annual Fixed Costs
Component | Cost (RMB/year) | Breakdown |
Depreciation | 1,416,667 | Straight-line method over 10 years (14,166,667 ÷ 10) |
Maintenance | 220,000 |
|
• Preventive | 80,000 | Quarterly servicing: membrane integrity checks, seal replacements |
• Predictive | 88,300 | AI-driven monitoring (vibration sensors, gas purity analyzers) |
• Consumables | 51,700 | Filters, demineralized water, coolant fluids |
Labor | 120,000 | 0.5 FTE technician (200 RMB/hour × 600 hours/year) |
Total Annual OPEX | 1,436,667 |
|
Variable Costs
· Electricity: 0 RMB/kWh (solar-powered)
· Water: 0.05 RMB/Nm³ → 35,000 RMB/year (integrated into consumables)
Unit Production Cost Calculation
· Daily OPEX: 1,436,667/350=4,105 RMB/day
· Daily H₂ Output: 2,000 Nm³
· Cost per Nm³: 4,105/2,000=2.05 RMB
4. Bottled Hydrogen Cost Structure
Adjusted Daily Requirement: 2,247 Nm³
(Accounts for 11% waste during handling and storage)
Cost Factor | Calculation | Value |
Bottles Required | 2,247/4.54 | 495 bottles/day |
Daily Cost | 495×40495×40 | 19,800 RMB |
Annual Cost | 19,800×35019,800×350 | 6,930,000 RMB |
Effective Cost/Nm³ | 19,800/2,247 | 9.90 RMB |
5. Financial Viability Assessment
Payback Period
· Initial Investment: 6,000,000 RMB (Year 0)
· Annual Savings: 6,930,000−1,436,667=5,493,333
· Payback: 6,000,000/5,493,333≈1.09 years
10-Year Net Present Value (NPV)
Discount Rate | NPV Formula | NPV (RMB) |
5% | ∑Net Cash Flowt/∑(1+0.05)t | 36,824,000 |
8% | ∑Net Cash Flowt/∑(1+0.08)t | 32,167,000 |
10% | ∑Net Cash Flowt/∑(1+0.10)t | 29,331,000 |
Detailed 10-Year Cash Flow (RMB)
Year | Capital Outflow | Operational Savings | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
0 | (6,000,000) | – | (6,000,000) | (6,000,000) |
1 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | (506,667) |
2 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +4,986,666 |
3 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +10,480,000 |
4 | (3,500,000) | +5,493,333 | +1,993,333 | +12,473,333 |
5 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +17,966,666 |
6 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +23,460,000 |
7 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +28,953,333 |
8 | (4,666,667) | +5,493,333 | +826,666 | +29,780,000 |
9 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +35,273,333 |
10 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +40,766,666 |
6. Sensitivity Analysis
Impact on Cost per Nm³
Parameter | Baseline | Adverse Scenario (+10%) | Cost/Nm³ | Change |
Stack Lifespan | 30,000 hr | 27,000 hr | 2.28 RMB | +11.2% |
Stack Cost | 3,500,000 RMB | 3,850,000 RMB | 2.25 RMB | +9.8% |
Electricity Cost | 0 RMB/kWh | 0.30 RMB/kWh | 2.35 RMB | +14.6% |
Operating Days/Year | 350 days | 315 days | 2.28 RMB | +11.2% |
Break-Even Thresholds
· Maximum Stack Cost: 8,500,000 RMB (143% increase from baseline) before cost exceeds bottled hydrogen.
· Electricity Cost Limit: 1.05 RMB/kWh (at which electrolysis cost = 9.90 RMB/Nm³).
7. Environmental and Sustainability Impact
· CO₂ Emissions Reduction:
· Bottled H₂ Emissions: 10.5 kg CO₂/kg H₂ (SMR + compression)
· Annual H₂ Production: 255,500 kg (2,000×350×0.08992,000×350×0.0899)
· Annual CO₂ Avoided: 255,500×10.5=2,682,750 kg255,500×10.5=2,682,750 kg (2,683 tonnes)
· Equivalent Environmental Benefits:
· Annual sequestration equivalent to 122,000 mature trees.
· Removal of 583 gasoline-powered cars from roads.
8. Risk Management Framework
Technical Risk Mitigation
Risk | Probability | Mitigation Strategy |
Stack Degradation | Medium | Operate at 80–90% load; deploy real-time voltage monitoring; negotiate 35,000-hour warranty |
Solar Intermittency | High | Install 1.5 MWh battery storage (≈1.2M RMB); secure backup power purchase agreement |
BOP Failure | Low | Maintain critical spares inventory; implement semi-annual thermal imaging inspections |
Financial Risk Controls
· Stack Price Volatility: Fixed-price contracts with annual escalation caps (max 3%).
· Demand Fluctuation: Hybrid supply model – maintain bottled backup for 5% of daily demand (100 Nm³/day).
9. Implementation Roadmap
Phase | Timeline | Key Activities | Budget Allocation |
Procurement | 2025-Q3 | Finalize stack supplier contract; order BOP components | 1,000,000 RMB |
Installation | 2025-Q4 | Civil works completion; system integration; safety validation | 700,000 RMB |
Commissioning | 2026-Q1 | Performance testing (ISO 22734); operator training; AI maintenance system setup | 300,000 RMB |
Optimization | 2026-Q2 | Ramp-up to 90% capacity; predictive maintenance calibration | 150,000 RMB |
10. Strategic Recommendations
1. Lifespan Optimization:
· Operate stacks at 80% nominal load (80 Nm³/hour) to extend lifespan to 35,000 hours, eliminating partial replacement needs.
2. Cost Reduction Levers:
· Bulk Procurement: Secure 15% discount for multi-stack orders (e.g., commit to 3 stacks).
· Maintenance AI: Invest 168,300 RMB/year in machine learning tools to reduce unscheduled downtime by 40%.
3. Policy Alignment:
· Leverage provincial green hydrogen subsidies (up to 20% CAPEX support).
Conclusion
Solar-powered hydrogen production at 2.05 RMB/Nm³ (with stack cost of 3.5M RMB) remains highly viable, delivering 79.3% cost savings versus bottled hydrogen. The project achieves breakeven in 13 months and generates 40.8 million RMB net savings over 10 years. Technical and financial risks are fully mitigable through operational discipline and strategic procurement.Stack Replacement Cost: 3,500,000 RMB per 30,000 Operating Hours
1. System Specifications and Operational Parameters
Electrolyzer System Design
· Technology: Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Electrolyzer
· Capacity: 100 Nm³/hour (nominal), derated to 90 Nm³/hour for lifespan optimization
· Daily Output: 2,000 Nm³ (20 operational hours/day)
· System Efficiency: 55 kWh/kg H₂ (4.94 kWh/Nm³)
· Stack Design Lifespan: 30,000 hours (extendable to 35,000 hours at 80% load)
· Balance of Plant (BOP) Lifespan: 15 years (no replacement required within 10-year horizon)
Key Operational Assumptions
Parameter | Value | Rationale |
Annual Operating Days | 350 days | 15 days/year allocated for maintenance, system checks, and unforeseen downtime |
Daily Operational Hours | 20 hours | Avoids peak electricity tariffs; aligns with solar generation profile |
Solar Electricity Cost | 0 RMB/kWh | Fully integrated on-site PV system; no grid dependency |
Bottled Hydrogen Cost | 9.90 RMB/Nm³ | Based on 40 RMB/bottle (4.54 Nm³/bottle) + 11% waste adjustment |
2. Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Breakdown
Initial System Investment (Year 0): 6,000,000 RMB
Component | Cost (RMB) | Share | Technical Details |
PEM Electrolyzer Stack | 3,500,000 | 58.3% | Includes membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs), bipolar plates, and assembly labor |
Balance of Plant (BOP) | 1,800,000 | 30.0% | Covers purification units, cooling systems, transformers, and control software |
Installation & Commissioning | 700,000 | 11.7% | Civil works, electrical integration, safety certification, and operator training |
Stack Replacement Schedule
· First Replacement (Year 4.3): 3,500,000 RMB (after 30,000 operational hours)
· Second Replacement (Year 8.6): 3,500,000 RMB (after 60,000 hours)
· Partial Replacement (Year 8.6): 1,166,667 RMBCalculation:Cost=(10,000 hr/30,000 hr)×3,500,000=1,166,667 RMB
(Required for final 10,000 hours of operation)
Total CAPEX (10 Years)
Component | Cost (RMB) | Timing |
Initial System | 6,000,000 | Year 0 |
Stack Replacements | 8,166,667 | Years 4.3 & 8.6 |
Total | 14,166,667 |
|
3. Operating Expenditure (OPEX) Analysis
Annual Fixed Costs
Component | Cost (RMB/year) | Breakdown |
Depreciation | 1,416,667 | Straight-line method over 10 years (14,166,667 ÷ 10) |
Maintenance | 220,000 |
|
• Preventive | 80,000 | Quarterly servicing: membrane integrity checks, seal replacements |
• Predictive | 88,300 | AI-driven monitoring (vibration sensors, gas purity analyzers) |
• Consumables | 51,700 | Filters, demineralized water, coolant fluids |
Labor | 120,000 | 0.5 FTE technician (200 RMB/hour × 600 hours/year) |
Total Annual OPEX | 1,436,667 |
|
Variable Costs
· Electricity: 0 RMB/kWh (solar-powered)
· Water: 0.05 RMB/Nm³ → 35,000 RMB/year (integrated into consumables)
Unit Production Cost Calculation
· Daily OPEX: 1,436,667/350=4,105 RMB/day
· Daily H₂ Output: 2,000 Nm³
· Cost per Nm³: 4,105/2,000=2.05 RMB
4. Bottled Hydrogen Cost Structure
Adjusted Daily Requirement: 2,247 Nm³
(Accounts for 11% waste during handling and storage)
Cost Factor | Calculation | Value |
Bottles Required | 2,247/4.54 | 495 bottles/day |
Daily Cost | 495×40495×40 | 19,800 RMB |
Annual Cost | 19,800×35019,800×350 | 6,930,000 RMB |
Effective Cost/Nm³ | 19,800/2,247 | 9.90 RMB |
5. Financial Viability Assessment
Payback Period
· Initial Investment: 6,000,000 RMB (Year 0)
· Annual Savings: 6,930,000−1,436,667=5,493,333
· Payback: 6,000,000/5,493,333≈1.09 years
10-Year Net Present Value (NPV)
Discount Rate | NPV Formula | NPV (RMB) |
5% | ∑Net Cash Flowt/∑(1+0.05)t | 36,824,000 |
8% | ∑Net Cash Flowt/∑(1+0.08)t | 32,167,000 |
10% | ∑Net Cash Flowt/∑(1+0.10)t | 29,331,000 |
Detailed 10-Year Cash Flow (RMB)
Year | Capital Outflow | Operational Savings | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
0 | (6,000,000) | – | (6,000,000) | (6,000,000) |
1 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | (506,667) |
2 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +4,986,666 |
3 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +10,480,000 |
4 | (3,500,000) | +5,493,333 | +1,993,333 | +12,473,333 |
5 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +17,966,666 |
6 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +23,460,000 |
7 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +28,953,333 |
8 | (4,666,667) | +5,493,333 | +826,666 | +29,780,000 |
9 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +35,273,333 |
10 | – | +5,493,333 | +5,493,333 | +40,766,666 |
6. Sensitivity Analysis
Impact on Cost per Nm³
Parameter | Baseline | Adverse Scenario (+10%) | Cost/Nm³ | Change |
Stack Lifespan | 30,000 hr | 27,000 hr | 2.28 RMB | +11.2% |
Stack Cost | 3,500,000 RMB | 3,850,000 RMB | 2.25 RMB | +9.8% |
Electricity Cost | 0 RMB/kWh | 0.30 RMB/kWh | 2.35 RMB | +14.6% |
Operating Days/Year | 350 days | 315 days | 2.28 RMB | +11.2% |
Break-Even Thresholds
· Maximum Stack Cost: 8,500,000 RMB (143% increase from baseline) before cost exceeds bottled hydrogen.
· Electricity Cost Limit: 1.05 RMB/kWh (at which electrolysis cost = 9.90 RMB/Nm³).
7. Environmental and Sustainability Impact
· CO₂ Emissions Reduction:
· Bottled H₂ Emissions: 10.5 kg CO₂/kg H₂ (SMR + compression)
· Annual H₂ Production: 255,500 kg (2,000×350×0.08992,000×350×0.0899)
· Annual CO₂ Avoided: 255,500×10.5=2,682,750 kg255,500×10.5=2,682,750 kg (2,683 tonnes)
· Equivalent Environmental Benefits:
· Annual sequestration equivalent to 122,000 mature trees.
· Removal of 583 gasoline-powered cars from roads.
8. Risk Management Framework
Technical Risk Mitigation
Risk | Probability | Mitigation Strategy |
Stack Degradation | Medium | Operate at 80–90% load; deploy real-time voltage monitoring; negotiate 35,000-hour warranty |
Solar Intermittency | High | Install 1.5 MWh battery storage (≈1.2M RMB); secure backup power purchase agreement |
BOP Failure | Low | Maintain critical spares inventory; implement semi-annual thermal imaging inspections |
Financial Risk Controls
· Stack Price Volatility: Fixed-price contracts with annual escalation caps (max 3%).
· Demand Fluctuation: Hybrid supply model – maintain bottled backup for 5% of daily demand (100 Nm³/day).
9. Implementation Roadmap
Phase | Timeline | Key Activities | Budget Allocation |
Procurement | 2025-Q3 | Finalize stack supplier contract; order BOP components | 1,000,000 RMB |
Installation | 2025-Q4 | Civil works completion; system integration; safety validation | 700,000 RMB |
Commissioning | 2026-Q1 | Performance testing (ISO 22734); operator training; AI maintenance system setup | 300,000 RMB |
Optimization | 2026-Q2 | Ramp-up to 90% capacity; predictive maintenance calibration | 150,000 RMB |
10. Strategic Recommendations
1. Lifespan Optimization:
· Operate stacks at 80% nominal load (80 Nm³/hour) to extend lifespan to 35,000 hours, eliminating partial replacement needs.
2. Cost Reduction Levers:
· Bulk Procurement: Secure 15% discount for multi-stack orders (e.g., commit to 3 stacks).
· Maintenance AI: Invest 168,300 RMB/year in machine learning tools to reduce unscheduled downtime by 40%.
3. Policy Alignment:
· Leverage provincial green hydrogen subsidies (up to 20% CAPEX support).
Conclusion
Solar-powered hydrogen production at 2.05 RMB/Nm³ (with stack cost of 3.5M RMB) remains highly viable, delivering 79.3% cost savings versus bottled hydrogen. The project achieves breakeven in 13 months and generates 40.8 million RMB net savings over 10 years. Technical and financial risks are fully mitigable through operational discipline and strategic procurement.
Comments